Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5eaf…01ca other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$657 (+4%) realized +$664 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$413
7 days+$336
14 days+$199
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$1,404
crypto 10% −$460
sports 4% +$99
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 50% +36.1%
≤30d 18 -44.6% -49.8% 33% 33% -16.2%
≤90d 41 -32.1% -38.5% 37% 34% -15.9%
all 62 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 47% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 47% -3.1%
10% -28.9% 44% -12.3%
15% -35.8% 37% -20.8%
20% -42.1% 29% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$141 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized+$664
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage121d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $993 $987 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $589 +$413 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $294 −$292 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $196 +$98 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $174 +$23 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $129 +$95 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$53 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $141 −$139 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $180 +$191 +106%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $54 +$158 +291%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $252 +$264 +105%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $125 +$55 +44%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $55 −$53 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $130 +$188 +144%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 18 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 18 $138 −$138 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? Apr 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Apr 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 18 $546 −$546 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $77 +$62 +81%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $228 −$225 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 04 $521 +$25 +5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $254 +$267 +105%
Will Egypt vs. Spain end in a draw? Mar 31 $667 +$99 +15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $339 +$328 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 31 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 29 $86 +$24 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 29 $110 −$107 -97%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $162 +$117 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 29 $363 −$363 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 28 $280 +$85 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 28 $30 +$15 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $40 −$38 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,001 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,001 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $589 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $78 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $294 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $196 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $174 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $129 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $65 14d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $141 17d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $23 25d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 25d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $77 25d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $62 25d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 25d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 90¢ $114 25d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $180 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $292 31d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.76 · official $986.76 (match) · 127 history records