Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5ea8…90c9 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$500 (-9%) realized −$521 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$716
7 days−$191
14 days−$191
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$225
other 6% −$14
tech 2% −$85
politics 1% −$32
economics 1% −$57
world 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +22.2% +10.5% 54% 50% -13.0%
≤30d 24 +22.2% +10.5% 54% 50% -13.0%
≤90d 29 +5.2% -4.8% 45% 41% -16.5%
all 30 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 40% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 40% -17.4%
10% -16.8% 40% -25.3%
15% -24.8% 37% -32.5%
20% -32.2% 33% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$130 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage91d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 51¢ $165 $187 +$22 (+14%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 52¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 48¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$137 +223%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$19 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$12 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$65 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$14 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$29 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $523 −$454 -87%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $209 −$10 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $445 −$235 -53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $274 −$271 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$64 -62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $665 −$665 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $119 −$7 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $295 +$350 +119%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $333 +$269 +81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $389 −$142 -37%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $323 −$77 -24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $335 +$434 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 +$290 +144%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $138 +$42 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $120 +$89 +74%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 12 $54 −$11 -20%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $37 −$22 -60%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? Apr 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $15 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $18 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $18 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $18 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $15 16h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $3 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $61 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Alg BUY $21 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $199 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $199 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $209 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $210 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $274 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $36 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $37 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $288 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $445 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $38 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $112 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $200 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $38 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.70 · official $239.70 · 122 history records