Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

5E 0x5ea6…a364 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$511 · open −$512

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,223per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$3,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-40.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+9.2%	-1.2%	67%	33%	-4.6%
≤30d	5	-34.5%	-40.7%	40%	20%	-8.6%
≤90d	5	-34.5%	-40.7%	40%	20%	-8.6%
all	5	-34.5%	-40.7%	40%	20%	-8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.7%	20%	-8.6%
10%	-46.4%	20%	-17.3%
15%	-51.6%	20%	-25.3%
20%	-56.3%	20%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$126 vs −$67 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$3,250

Realized+$511

Unrealized−$512

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage12d

Avg bet$1,223

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	60¢	58¢	$1,879	$1,832	−$47 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Germany	83¢	62¢	$1,884	$1,419	−$465 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$4,506	+$188	+4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 26	$51	+$63	+123%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 26	$4	−$4	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$193	−$189	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$14	−$7	-52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	83¢	$1,894	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	60¢	$1,901	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,694	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$114	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	3d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	31¢	$4	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	96¢	$4,506	3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	34¢	$193	7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7	12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$6	12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,250.33 · official $3,341.13 · 11 history records