Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ea6…aca2 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$13
politics 29% −$7
sports 8% +$4
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 2% -9.6%
all 91 -2.9% -12.2% 10% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage112d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 05 $381 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $153 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 29 $271 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $453 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $304 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $328 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $449 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $456 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $191 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $475 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $175 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $466 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $298 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 04 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 4d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $159 13d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $4 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $13 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $0 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $37 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $165 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 287 history records