Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ea3…78bf crypto 618 markets active 3h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%393W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$1,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$129
other 9% +$98
politics 2% −$102
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -73.1% -75.6% 0% 0% -75.6%
≤30d 100 -99.7% -99.8% 0% 0% -99.4%
≤90d 269 -7.0% -15.8% 53% 53% -14.7%
all 614 -1.6% -11.0% 64% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 45% -11.6%
10% -19.5% 45% -20.1%
15% -27.3% 44% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 38% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses393 / 221
Open positions4
Markets (closed)614 / 618
History coverage103d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 614 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $65 $54 −$11 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $29 −$21 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 24d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 28d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $123 34d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $65 40d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $68 40d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $96 41d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $187 42d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $80 43d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 91¢ $237 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.75 · official $162.75 (match) · 1343 history records