Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e9f…91db other 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 221d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$36,724 (+53%) realized +$37,120 · open −$396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%72W / 193L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$20,798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$244
14 days+$244
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$33,639
sports 12% −$1,215
politics 11% +$1,720
tech 8% +$1,775
world 7% −$292
culture 4% −$1,691
crypto 3% +$1,560
finance 1% −$452
economics 1% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.8% +1.1% 50% 50% +31.7%
≤30d 22 -22.0% -29.4% 32% 32% +5.4%
≤90d 64 +24.2% +12.4% 33% 28% +7.9%
all 265 -12.4% -20.7% 27% 23% +74.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 23% +74.9%
10% -28.3% 19% +58.1%
15% -35.2% 16% +42.9%
20% -41.6% 13% +28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +100% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$625 vs −$51 · ×12.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.66 per $1 lost it wins $4.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$20,798
Realized+$37,120
Unrealized−$396
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses72 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions100
Markets (closed)265 / 364
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 100 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4,970 $5,548 +$578 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,448 $2,463 +$1,016 (+70%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $1,662 $1,625 −$37 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $846 $1,134 +$288 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $892 $956 +$64 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $507 $632 +$125 (+25%)
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $467 $593 +$126 (+27%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $478 $503 +$25 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $664 $502 −$162 (-24%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 70¢ 94¢ $295 $397 +$102 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $406 $388 −$18 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $342 $297 −$45 (-13%)
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 59¢ 62¢ $242 $253 +$11 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $292 $250 −$42 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $288 $239 −$49 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $179 $219 +$39 (+22%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $134 $214 +$80 (+60%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $205 $180 −$25 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $132 $137 +$5 (+4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 35¢ 26¢ $184 $136 −$49 (-26%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 61¢ $72 $130 +$57 (+79%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $149 $122 −$27 (-18%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $117 $101 −$16 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $91 $98 +$7 (+8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $97 $86 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +194%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $122 +$164 +134%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $251 +$47 +19%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -73%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $113 +$44 +39%
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1350.00 and 1399 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $29 −$2 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $88 −$17 -20%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $786 +$486 +62%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $197 −$69 -35%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $34 +$47 +138%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix May 23 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix May 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $578 −$14 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,439 −$120 -8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $14 −$10 -75%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 09 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $1,045 −$365 -35%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $512 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 02 $18 −$17 -94%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $49 +$49 +99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $48 −$20 -42%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Apr 29 $155 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 28 $59 +$10 +17%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 25 $95 −$78 -82%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? Apr 24 $27 −$18 -67%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $63 −$21 -33%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Apr 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $683 −$393 -58%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $248 −$247 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December? Apr 14 $25 −$16 -64%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $250 −$230 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 27m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 28m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 33m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 54m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 8h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $55 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 14h
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY No 59¢ $246 25h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 28h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 28h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $102 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,798.17 · official $20,879.57 (match) · 3500 history records