Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e97…1b4c other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%19W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$33
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$45
politics 26% −$30
sports 16% −$12
crypto 6% −$11
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$7
culture 4% −$5
finance 4% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 64 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 145 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 158 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses19 / 139
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage100d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $336 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$3 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $71 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $145 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $67 $0 +1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $71 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $402 −$3 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $436 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $249 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $105 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $53 −$8 -15%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 09 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $46 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $167 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $145 −$3 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $274 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 36m
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $66 1h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $66 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $71 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $71 17h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $71 18h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $71 22h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $61 23h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $68 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $68 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $63 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 42h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $70 42h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $66 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $61 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $74 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $74 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $75 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $75 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $71 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $66 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.27 · official $64.27 (match) · 703 history records