Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e8e…7a98 world 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$2
world 34% +$1
sports 10% −$1
politics 6% −$5
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.2% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 +1.1% -8.6% 23% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 42 +0.6% -8.9% 24% 2% -9.6%
all 58 +0.1% -9.5% 24% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 44
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage348d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $85 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $86 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$4 -13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $188 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $99 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $134 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $356 −$4 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $219 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $103 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $244 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $154 +$14 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $69 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $12 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $62 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $330 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $137 −$1 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $133 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $80 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $614 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $575 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $559 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $279 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $12 −$2 -20%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $146 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $38 0m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $47 0m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $85 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $47 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $47 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $57 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $69 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $85 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $29 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $50 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $88 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $52 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records