Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e8d…a3f2 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$5
politics 20% $0
sports 20% −$5
other 20% −$5
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 2% -9.7%
all 47 -6.6% -15.5% 32% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -23.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage525d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $89 −$3 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 −$2 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $70 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 −$7 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $131 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $102 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $14 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $34 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $5 $0 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $281 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $282 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $256 $0 +0%
Florida International vs. UTEP Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ICE detain 700-799 people on January 30? Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FCSB beat Manchester United? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 30 $1 $0 +0%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 22 $4 $0 -2%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $19 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $11 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $18 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $29 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $18 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $31 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $31 43h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $0 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records