Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e8b…9ac5 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$404 (-27%) realized −$404 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$151
14 days−$156
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$271
sports 44% −$136
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 36% -38.4%
≤30d 30 +2.4% -7.3% 43% 40% -8.6%
≤90d 43 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 47% -11.5%
all 59 -14.0% -22.1% 42% 41% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 41% -34.4%
10% -29.6% 39% -40.7%
15% -36.4% 37% -46.4%
20% -42.6% 27% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage150d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 +$10 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $59 −$59 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $114 −$55 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$14 -47%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$13 -55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +184%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $23 +$24 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$42 -92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $133 +$151 +114%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 May 10 $68 −$68 -99%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $53 +$15 +28%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $38 +$7 +18%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $29 +$10 +36%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $5 +$4 +75%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5 May 09 $22 +$12 +54%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Apr 11 $15 −$9 -55%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $19 +$8 +39%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a dra Feb 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $161 −$134 -83%
Will Trabzonspor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Feb 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Feb 14 $37 −$19 -52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $1 +$1 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 90¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $18 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $13 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $59 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $59 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $114 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records