Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5e89…6c42 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$52 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$36
14 days+$57
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$2
sports 23% +$124
tech 21% −$36
world 8% −$18
crypto 6% +$4
culture 2% +$17
economics 1% −$6
politics 1% $0
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 50% +6.4%
≤30d 31 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 42% -7.3%
≤90d 50 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 44% -4.0%
all 62 -2.5% -11.7% 60% 45% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 45% -4.5%
10% -20.2% 34% -13.7%
15% -27.9% 23% -22.0%
20% -35.0% 10% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage111d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Cabo Verde 38¢ 38¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ $32 $4 −$28 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06- Jun 26 $30 +$50 +169%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $49 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 21 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$5 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $62 +$6 +10%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $23 +$5 +24%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $87 −$36 -41%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $32 −$7 -22%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 05 $35 +$25 +71%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $41 −$7 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$41 +201%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $25 +$8 +32%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $29 +$7 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $38 +$8 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? May 29 $25 −$9 -35%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 28 $20 +$19 +91%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 26 $49 +$9 +19%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $37 +$7 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $31 +$13 +42%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 15 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 15 $25 −$1 -3%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $70 −$10 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $40 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 22 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 20 $50 +$5 +9%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 10 $41 +$18 +43%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $30 +$11 +37%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 05 $40 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 38¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $25 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 47h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $30 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 73¢ $49 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $50 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $21 5d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 100¢ $62 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 89¢ $29 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 68¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $13 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 28¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $50 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $65 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 93¢ $65 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 88¢ $62 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 12d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $62 13d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $20 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 15d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $20 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.66 · official $62.66 (match) · 177 history records