Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5E 0x5e89…c5a4 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$68 (+12%) realized +$82 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$93per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+27.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+41.1%	+27.7%	100%	100%	+34.2%
≤30d	2	+41.1%	+27.7%	100%	100%	+34.2%
≤90d	2	+41.1%	+27.7%	100%	100%	+34.2%
all	2	+41.1%	+27.7%	100%	100%	+34.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.7%	100%	+34.2%
10%	+15.5%	50%	+21.4%
15%	+4.3%	50%	+9.6%
20%	-5.9%	50%	-1.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$380

Realized+$82

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$93

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$130	$129	−$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$97	$92	−$5 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$87	$80	−$7 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$80	$80	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$60	+$7	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$70	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$30	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$80	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$90	10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$60	10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$100	12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$100	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.13 · official $380.13 (match) · 9 history records