Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e84…cb30 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,669 (+12%) realized +$1,907 · open −$238
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$326
14 days+$50
30 days+$4,947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$2,710
politics 25% +$4,338
crypto 22% −$220
sports 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +15.2% +4.2% 56% 56% +4.0%
≤30d 22 +14.9% +3.9% 45% 45% +88.9%
≤90d 29 -5.4% -14.4% 34% 34% +39.3%
all 43 -9.0% -17.6% 33% 28% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 28% +2.4%
10% -25.5% 26% -7.4%
15% -32.7% 23% -16.3%
20% -39.3% 16% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -34% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$415 vs −$143 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized+$1,907
Unrealized−$238
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage562d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $561 $436 −$125 (-22%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 38¢ $204 $116 −$88 (-43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $103 $79 −$25 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $231 +$166 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $185 +$110 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $196 −$161 -82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $329 +$94 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 +$51 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $129 +$65 +51%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 −$13 -68%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $183 −$36 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $108 +$51 +48%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $55 −$6 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$94 -61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 +$13 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 −$53 -34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 +$145 +176%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $107 −$19 -18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $165 −$161 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $125 −$66 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $167 −$17 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $80 −$27 -34%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $115 −$5 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $1,715 +$4,898 +286%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 27 $948 −$522 -55%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Apr 27 $723 −$33 -4%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Apr 20 $1,203 −$272 -23%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Feb 09 $45 −$31 -69%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $78 −$33 -42%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 22 $148 −$46 -31%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $94 +$121 +130%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $114 +$74 +65%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $2,884 −$2,235 -78%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Dec 31 $32 −$20 -64%
Ethereum above $4,000 on December 13? Dec 13 $1,002 −$65 -6%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Dec 11 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Dec 11 $369 −$31 -8%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 10 $61 −$10 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Dec 09 $70 +$6 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? Dec 09 $73 −$14 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $206 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $347 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $295 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $185 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $36 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $74 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $74 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $423 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $329 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $166 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $195 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $82 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $147 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 4d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 4d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $60 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $154 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $112 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $629.62 · official $629.73 (match) · 314 history records