Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e84…8e88 crypto 289 markets active 4d ago coverage 45d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57,866 (-7%) realized −$57,884 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%235W / 42L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,017per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,705now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% +$1,084
finance 27% −$74,922
world 18% −$11,350
other 10% −$4,020
tech 8% −$4,774
politics 0% +$68
sports 0% +$9
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -21.4% -28.9% 74% 11% -53.5%
≤30d 79 -14.3% -22.5% 81% 11% -31.2%
≤90d 277 -4.4% -13.5% 85% 15% -19.5%
all 277 -4.4% -13.5% 85% 15% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 15% -19.5%
10% -21.8% 4% -27.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.3% 0% -34.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$3,221) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$3,005 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$6,705
Realized−$57,884
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses235 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)277 / 289
History coverage45d
Avg bet$3,017
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 95¢ 92¢ $2,837 $2,736 −$101 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $865 $925 +$60 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $699 $710 +$11 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $460 $681 +$221 (+48%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 94¢ 99¢ $566 $592 +$26 (+5%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 77¢ 97¢ $385 $487 +$102 (+26%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 59¢ 34¢ $533 $314 −$219 (-41%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $180 $114 −$66 (-37%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $91 $86 −$6 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $54 $50 −$4 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $890 +$77 +9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $432 +$66 +15%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 25 $288 +$11 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 25 $236 +$8 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 25 $194 +$5 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $112 +$5 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 25 $181 +$19 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? Jun 25 $305 +$6 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 25 $451 +$48 +11%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $764 +$21 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 25 $940 +$48 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? Jun 25 $953 +$37 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 25 $1,160 +$25 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $1,058 +$245 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 25 $2,007 +$76 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2,756 +$28 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 25 $3,246 +$10 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 25 $3,236 +$157 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 25 $3,825 +$83 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 25 $3,846 +$129 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 25 $4,088 +$376 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 25 $4,464 +$216 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 25 $6,860 +$308 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 25 $7,914 +$348 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 25 $9,655 +$100 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 25 $11,036 +$866 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 25 $22,754 −$22,754 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 25 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 25 $603 −$603 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 25 $795 −$795 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 25 $2,275 −$2,275 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $6,740 −$6,740 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 25 $8,238 −$8,238 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 25 $10,005 −$10,005 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 25 $24,025 −$22,763 -95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$14 -79%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $918 +$91 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $3,784 +$216 +6%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $96 +$8 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 10 $2,783 −$2,581 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 08 $8,519 −$8,519 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9,334 +$415 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $7,332 +$49 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $691 +$27 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,018 +$22 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $967 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $498 3d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $299 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $244 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $199 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $200 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $311 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $498 3d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $785 3d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL No 99¢ $988 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $990 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,185 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,303 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2,082 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,785 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL No 96¢ $3,256 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 100¢ $3,393 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $3,908 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,976 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $4,464 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4,681 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 99¢ $5,123 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2,045 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $8,262 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $9,755 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $11,902 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,704.85 · official $6,704.94 (match) · 2042 history records