Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e84…920a crypto 133 markets active 3d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%77W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 57% -8.7%
≤30d 133 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 55% -13.3%
≤90d 133 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 55% -13.3%
all 133 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 55% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 55% -13.3%
10% -20.9% 44% -21.6%
15% -28.5% 33% -29.1%
20% -35.5% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses77 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records