Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e82…2aa4 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$594 (+8%) realized +$594 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate70%42W / 18L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$2
other 29% −$1
crypto 27% +$596
economics 3% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 60 +2.8% -7.0% 70% 3% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 3% -1.9%
10% -15.9% 2% -11.3%
15% -24.0% 2% -19.8%
20% -31.5% 2% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$0 · ×58.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×145.56 per $1 lost it wins $145.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$594
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses42 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage577d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February Mar 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $578 in November? Dec 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1,030 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 10 $591 +$591 +100%
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $6B one day after launch? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 14? Aug 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,075 $0 +0%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 +$2 +19%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +2%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Fed rate hike in 2024? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parlia Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote? Nov 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Republican candidate win Georgia by 2.0%-3.0%? Nov 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Republican candidate win Georgia by 4.0% or more? Nov 24 $2 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Nov 21 $183 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Nov 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 21 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 30d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $30 103d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $5 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $4 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $4 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $2 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $3 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $3 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $3 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $2 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $3 118d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 99¢ $3 118d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 97¢ $31 160d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 178d
Will Tesla reach $578 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 223d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $591 226d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 226d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 244d
Meteora FDV above $6B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $5 244d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $589 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $590 255d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $579 255d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $580 255d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? BUY No 98¢ $18 268d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? BUY No 96¢ $15 268d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 139 history records