Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e7d…ca41 other 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,891 (-5%) realized −$4,639 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%85W / 394L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$558
7 days−$970
14 days−$1,971
30 days−$2,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$2,435
politics 25% −$1,538
economics 7% −$510
sports 4% −$161
world 4% −$307
tech 4% −$692
crypto 1% −$94
culture 1% −$85
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -7.0% -15.8% 9% 2% -12.0%
≤30d 142 -12.3% -20.6% 6% 1% -13.1%
≤90d 479 -11.2% -19.7% 18% 8% -14.8%
all 479 -11.2% -19.7% 18% 8% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 8% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 4% -22.9%
15% -34.4% 3% -30.4%
20% -40.8% 1% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,505
Realized−$4,639
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses85 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions8
Markets (closed)479 / 487
History coverage85d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $792 $760 −$32 (-4%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 55¢ $528 $436 −$92 (-17%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $202 $180 −$21 (-11%)
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage No 24¢ 11¢ $120 $53 −$67 (-56%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-21%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will LPL (China) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Yes 25¢ 10¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 92¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $225 −$9 -4%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $574 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $600 −$8 -1%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $752 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $990 −$25 -2%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $255 −$10 -4%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 −$7 -35%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 25 $1,810 −$129 -7%
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Jun 25 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $8,888 +$34 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 24 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 24 $81 −$9 -11%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $896 −$31 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 24 $1,720 −$94 -6%
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $207 −$47 -23%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber Jun 24 $1,032 −$193 -19%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $933 −$13 -1%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 23 $623 −$24 -4%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 23 $740 −$20 -3%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $12 −$5 -38%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $361 −$12 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $328 −$14 -4%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $96 −$18 -19%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $0 $0 -3%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $582 −$22 -4%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $674 −$13 -2%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $89 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $2,736 −$70 -2%
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? Jun 21 $140 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $3,238 −$35 -1%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl Jun 21 $26 −$3 -13%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $400 +$10 +2%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $27 −$4 -14%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 20 $232 −$10 -4%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,720 −$70 -2%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $0 21m
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $4 21m
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $15 21m
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $528 23m
Will LCK (South Korea) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knoc BUY No 24¢ $120 32m
Will LPL (China) Region Win the Most Series in the MSI 2026 Knockout S BUY Yes 25¢ $50 44m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $7 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 16¢ $82 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 75¢ $2 2h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 75¢ $44 2h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $28 3h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 75¢ $300 4h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $198 5h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 5h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 5h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 6h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $18 6h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 6h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $225 6h
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? BUY Yes 88¢ $792 6h
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 6h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 75¢ $64 7h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $106 9h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $106 9h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $23 9h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $23 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,505.45 · official $1,505.30 (match) · 2043 history records