Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e7b…109e other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2
politics 23% −$8
economics 8% −$3
sports 4% −$77
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.7% +5.6% 17% 17% -7.9%
≤30d 15 +6.6% -3.5% 13% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 110 -6.6% -15.5% 7% 4% -9.8%
all 110 -6.6% -15.5% 7% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$13 +101%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $318 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $366 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $293 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $437 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $226 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $225 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $221 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $458 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $463 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $701 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $13 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $149 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 11d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 12d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 16d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.94 · official $251.94 (match) · 322 history records