Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e73…e5b1 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$7
world 25% −$1
politics 20% −$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 6% −$3
economics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -10.1%
all 51 -3.9% -13.1% 27% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -11.0%
10% -21.4% 0% -19.5%
15% -29.0% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage297d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $27 −$2 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $2 $0 -8%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 6m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $4 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $28 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $25 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $27 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $27 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $20 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $0 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $6 28d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $8 183d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records