Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e71…afe6
weather · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$41 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage11d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$220
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $85 $92 +$7 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 4? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 4? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$23 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$13 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$11 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$22 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$18 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$12 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$9 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 +$24 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$38 +461%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$4 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$24 +384%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$17 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $121 −$34 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 +$16 +40%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $145 −$143 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $166 −$160 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 −$15 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $386 +$58 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$3 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 89¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 71¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 37% -21.3%
≤30d 75 +40.9% +27.5% 43% 39% -4.2%
≤90d 75 +40.9% +27.5% 43% 39% -4.2%
all 75 +40.9% +27.5% 43% 39% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.5% 39% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here +15.3% 32% -13.3%
15% +4.2% 25% -21.7%
20% -6.0% 19% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.86 · official $109.86 (match) · 550 history records