Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e71…52d1 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,476 (-5%) realized −$4,476 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,633per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$737est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 262d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$2,483
sports 32% +$2,690
other 22% −$7,382
world 2% −$171
politics 2% −$521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 23% 19% -15.6%
≤90d 37 -0.5% -9.9% 19% 16% -15.1%
all 53 -1.0% -10.5% 34% 21% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 21% -17.7%
10% -19.0% 11% -25.6%
15% -26.9% 8% -32.8%
20% -34.0% 8% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,985) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$371 vs −$416 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$737
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage262d
Avg bet$1,633
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $2,816 −$2,816 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $3,620 −$1,222 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1,385 +$461 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $2,739 +$951 +35%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,471 +$1,266 +86%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 15 $1,479 −$25 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $510 −$70 -14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 22 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $217 −$55 -25%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 20 $1,440 −$82 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 May 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? May 20 $2,538 −$2,538 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $2,031 +$2,051 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 19 $132 −$2 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 May 19 $1,500 −$52 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,923 −$173 -9%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 19 $770 −$85 -11%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $1,985 −$93 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $1,290 −$101 -8%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) May 19 $4,610 −$273 -6%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 19 $92 −$3 -4%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 19 $249 −$15 -6%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $332 −$4 -1%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) May 19 $453 −$27 -6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 19 $1,249 −$20 -2%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 19 $1,290 −$14 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $1,530 −$111 -7%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $2,940 −$20 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $1,711 −$22 -1%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $390 −$4 -1%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $1,500 −$22 -2%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) May 18 $61 −$1 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 18 $315 −$5 -2%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $1,196 +$1,341 +112%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 28 $3,457 −$2,261 -65%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 18 $964 −$456 -47%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 18 $6,574 −$3,361 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $2,099 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $6,561 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $8,176 −$15 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $93k November 3-9? Nov 10 $8,163 +$13 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November? Nov 03 $340 +$11 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 01 $330 +$10 +3%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $304 +$26 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 29 $271 +$32 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $542 +$71 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $512 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $682 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $343 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1,021 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $577 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1,020 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1,010 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $363 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $706 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $315 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $604 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1,019 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $249 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $774 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $1,471 2d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,454 2d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 77¢ $98 26d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,356 26d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 26d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $440 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $510 27d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 82¢ $1,005 27d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A SELL NRG 15¢ $162 28d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B SELL 3DMAX 56¢ $27 28d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY 3DMAX 55¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records