Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5e6e…cfed sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,368 (+13%) realized +$1,153 · open +$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 65L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,371
7 days+$1,371
14 days+$1,371
30 days+$1,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,499
other 10% −$37
crypto 3% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +22.0% +10.4% 86% 57% +22.7%
≤30d 7 +22.0% +10.4% 86% 57% +22.7%
≤90d 113 +5.4% -4.7% 46% 44% +15.3%
all 119 +3.6% -6.3% 45% 43% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 43% +3.8%
10% -15.3% 42% -6.1%
15% -23.4% 39% -15.2%
20% -30.9% 36% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$14 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$2,215
Realized+$1,153
Unrealized+$215
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage111d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Under 88¢ 97¢ $2,000 $2,215 +$215 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $1,529 +$622 +41%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,224 +$567 +46%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $175 +$15 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $275 +$20 +7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $250 +$56 +22%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $300 +$94 +31%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 05 $6 −$4 -72%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 1 Winner May 05 $1 −$1 -88%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $12 +$34 +279%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $5 +$3 +64%
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 06 $44 −$27 -61%
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 06 $34 −$19 -57%
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $20 −$11 -53%
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $1 +$1 +104%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $22 +$60 +276%
LoL: SK Gaming vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $8 +$31 +382%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $11 −$7 -67%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Om Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Secret vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Apr 05 $20 −$8 -40%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $40 −$14 -36%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 05 $4 +$3 +86%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Apr 05 $27 +$18 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $3 +$2 +67%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $68 +$50 +74%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $22 +$8 +38%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $16 −$1 -6%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $18 −$11 -60%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 05 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 05 $23 +$26 +113%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $10 −$8 -74%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Apr 04 $9 +$5 +52%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $4 −$2 -45%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $15 +$10 +69%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $11 −$5 -43%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $13 +$15 +113%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $6 +$6 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2,027 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $1,529 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,224 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $98 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $190 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $295 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $306 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $394 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 72d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $175 72d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $275 72d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $250 72d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $300 72d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Connecticut Huskies 30¢ $5 72d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Connecticut Huskies 28¢ $15 72d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Team Vitality 41¢ $2 73d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Team Vitality 24¢ $10 73d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 45¢ $5 73d
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL GIANTX 100¢ $8 73d
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY GIANTX 60¢ $5 73d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner SELL Dignitas 5¢ $1 73d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner BUY Dignitas 41¢ $2 73d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner BUY Dignitas 39¢ $1 73d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner BUY Dignitas 31¢ $4 73d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner SELL Dignitas 32¢ $8 73d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner BUY Dignitas 50¢ $13 74d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Group Stage BUY Dignitas 48¢ $26 74d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Group Stage SELL Shopify Rebellion 54¢ $17 74d
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Group Stage BUY Shopify Rebellion 57¢ $18 74d
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 41¢ $1 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,214.77 · official $2,214.77 (match) · 441 history records