Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e6d…a2a1 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$562 (-8%) realized −$64 · open −$498
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$295
14 days−$331
30 days−$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$908
world 32% −$915
crypto 7% +$400
politics 5% −$73
sports 2% −$108
economics 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.3% -30.6% 17% 17% -31.6%
≤30d 43 -15.1% -23.2% 23% 21% -26.6%
≤90d 60 -16.1% -24.1% 23% 20% -25.1%
all 60 -16.1% -24.1% 23% 20% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 20% -25.1%
10% -31.3% 17% -32.3%
15% -38.0% 15% -38.8%
20% -44.1% 13% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$53 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$498
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage36d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $826 $328 −$498 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 19 $1,000 −$252 -25%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $85 −$6 -8%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jun 17 $25 −$6 -25%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 17 $51 −$25 -48%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 09 $104 −$36 -34%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -24%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) May 29 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $194 −$38 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $84 −$26 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $73 −$51 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $32 −$25 -76%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 26 $42 −$5 -13%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 26 $42 −$11 -26%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $104 −$80 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $63 −$56 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $360 −$222 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $89 −$59 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $312 −$103 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $37 −$30 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $52 −$46 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $219 −$213 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $260 −$176 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $209 −$186 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $210 −$107 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $209 −$68 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $104 +$101 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $21 −$15 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $104 +$503 +482%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $104 −$50 -48%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 22 $35 +$27 +78%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $196 +$348 +177%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $51 −$16 -31%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $104 −$56 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $40 +$26 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $42 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $62 −$17 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $52 −$11 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $780 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $620 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $127 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,000 1h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $79 1h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 2d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 2d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 2d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 9d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 9d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 9d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 9d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June SELL Yes 10¢ $68 9d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL No 8¢ $2 9d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 10¢ $3 16d
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Djokovic 10¢ $15 20d
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Djokovic 25¢ $14 20d
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Djokovic 25¢ $4 20d
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Djokovic 10¢ $9 20d
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Djokovic 34¢ $51 20d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY Yes 15¢ $104 20d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $146 21d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 13¢ $147 21d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $30 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.02 · official $324.93 (match) · 163 history records