Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e6d…0d14 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$31
sports 29% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.6% -5.4% 24% 24% -17.1%
≤30d 38 +4.6% -5.4% 24% 24% -17.1%
≤90d 38 +4.6% -5.4% 24% 24% -17.1%
all 38 +4.6% -5.4% 24% 24% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 24% -17.1%
10% -14.4% 24% -25.0%
15% -22.7% 24% -32.2%
20% -30.3% 24% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 +$24 +51%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 +$24 +593%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $6 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$8 -80%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +261%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -91%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1110%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$6 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$6 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 56m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $48 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 16¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $6 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 13h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 0¢ $0 20h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 3¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 20h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 10¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 35h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 35h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.55 · official $50.55 (match) · 69 history records