Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e69…7f76 sports 562 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,100 (-1%) realized −$2,298 · open −$1,802
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%299W / 257L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$3,633est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$87
other 19% −$2,279
world 5% −$2,846
politics 1% −$23
tech 0% +$73
crypto 0% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.0% -22.2% 49% 38% -21.0%
≤30d 281 -5.1% -14.2% 51% 47% -9.2%
≤90d 556 +5.0% -5.0% 54% 47% -10.6%
all 556 +5.0% -5.0% 54% 47% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 47% -10.6%
10% -14.1% 46% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.4% 43% -27.0%
20% -30.0% 39% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$577) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$401 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$7,338
Realized−$2,298
Unrealized−$1,802
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses299 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$3,633
Open positions6
Markets (closed)556 / 562
History coverage65d
Avg bet$624
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $4,655 $4,595 −$59 (-1%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,029 $2,030 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $600 $594 −$6 (-1%)
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) GamerLegion 52¢ 14¢ $436 $117 −$319 (-73%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B FOKUS 50¢ 0¢ $833 $1 −$833 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 49¢ 0¢ $588 $1 −$587 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $613 +$587 +96%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $764 −$756 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $564 +$636 +113%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $481 −$481 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $715 +$518 +72%
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $556 −$7 -1%
Will Dino Nuggets win Deadman: All Stars Season 3? Jun 22 $194 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $585 −$585 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $466 −$466 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $1,218 −$1,218 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $681 +$519 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $552 +$648 +117%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $636 +$564 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $573 +$627 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $432 −$432 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,146 −$1,146 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $741 −$741 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $774 −$774 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $549 −$549 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $2,792 +$13 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $525 +$675 +129%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $566 −$174 -31%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $561 −$561 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,146 +$1,254 +110%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $764 +$436 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $645 −$645 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,202 −$1,202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $729 +$471 +65%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,080 +$660 +61%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $657 −$657 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $705 −$705 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $705 +$495 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $579 +$621 +107%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,337 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $919 +$115 +12%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $1,170 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,489 −$911 -61%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $113 −$93 -82%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win on 2026-05-09 at GCT: Super Rapid & Bl Jun 16 $385 +$15 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $573 −$573 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $717 −$717 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,657 −$1,006 -61%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $1,799 −$1,799 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,943 +$5,073 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$19 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $187 −$118 -63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $576 +$479 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY GamerLegion 52¢ $442 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 52¢ $295 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 52¢ $65 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 52¢ $104 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 52¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 52¢ $157 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $64 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 44¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 62¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $126 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $343 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $111 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 51¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 51¢ $23 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $608 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 51¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,338.31 · official $7,338.31 (match) · 3334 history records