Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e66…bbd2 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+7%) realized +$141 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day82.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$306
world 7% −$155
other 7% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +0.8%
≤30d 26 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +0.8%
≤90d 26 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +0.8%
all 26 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 50% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 50% -8.9%
15% -28.0% 50% -17.7%
20% -35.1% 50% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$57 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day82.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 45¢ 44¢ $115 $113 −$2 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 60¢ 60¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $43 +$43 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $14 −$13 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $95 +$70 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $31 +$40 +129%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $44 +$34 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $29 +$22 +77%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 17 $18 +$16 +88%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $25 +$18 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$21 +63%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $190 +$215 +113%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $102 −$101 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $39 −$38 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $509 +$291 +57%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $19 +$31 +162%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $172 −$169 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $82 −$46 -57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $66 +$92 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $157 −$155 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T Jun 16 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 +$62 +80%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 21m
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $48 21m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 46¢ $14 24m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $64 25m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $20 26m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $21 26m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $14 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $5 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $28 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $39 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 97¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 94¢ $160 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $58 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $12 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $29 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $19 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $47 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $31 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. T BUY No 52¢ $14 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $20 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. SELL No 99¢ $34 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 61¢ $24 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 52¢ $5 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 52¢ $13 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. SELL No 100¢ $43 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $26 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $3 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 58¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.21 · official $182.21 (match) · 109 history records