Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e5f…7a96 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-5%) realized −$33 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate72%33W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$22
finance 13% +$4
crypto 13% −$20
politics 11% +$6
economics 8% −$2
tech 6% +$1
world 2% +$1
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 +10.1% -0.3% 67% 67% -1.5%
≤90d 21 -2.6% -11.8% 71% 19% -13.0%
all 46 +3.9% -6.0% 72% 20% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 20% -14.1%
10% -15.0% 9% -22.3%
15% -23.2% 4% -29.8%
20% -30.8% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)46 / 53
History coverage132d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 42¢ 29¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 22 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 15 $14 +$1 +10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 03 $20 +$4 +18%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 26 $31 −$2 -5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 26 $38 −$13 -34%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 26 $20 −$4 -21%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 06 $7 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February? Mar 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $18 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $30 $0 -0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 23 $2 +$3 +194%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? Feb 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $15 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 11? Feb 11 $20 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $5 $0 +0%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Feb 11 $3 $0 +2%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 11 $1 +$4 +333%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 07 $4 +$1 +20%
Tria FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 07 $5 $0 +5%
Tria FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 59m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $11 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $11 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $12 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $11 14d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 88¢ $4 25d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 25d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 82¢ $11 31d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $5 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 79¢ $4 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 38d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $9 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 43d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $5 43d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 60¢ $7 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $11 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $1 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 14¢ $3 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? SELL No $0 50d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 95¢ $14 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.93 · official $32.75 · 185 history records