Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e5a…7b6b sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate89%31W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$10
crypto 20% +$2
other 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 33% -17.5%
all 35 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 23% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 17% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 11% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$151 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses31 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage197d
Avg bet$363
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $459 −$455 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $388 +$72 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 14 $259 +$129 +50%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $203 +$56 +27%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $186 +$18 +10%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $182 +$4 +2%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 30 $179 +$3 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $179 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 04 $404 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 04 $1,040 +$1 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 03 $1,434 +$10 +1%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $427 +$61 +14%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Feb 28 $1,368 +$4 +0%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $871 +$1 +0%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $3 +$3 +72%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 22 $530 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Feb 12 $1,360 +$4 +0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Feb 07 $118 +$74 +62%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Feb 07 $346 +$124 +36%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 07 $972 +$1 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $100 +$30 +30%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 23 $30 +$3 +9%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 23 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? Jan 08 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $52 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $66 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $191 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $982 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 28d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 28d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 67¢ $459 32d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ $388 37d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $259 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $203 43d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 91¢ $186 66d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 98¢ $182 79d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 99¢ $179 87d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $179 98d
Mavericks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 100¢ $404 113d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Magic 100¢ $1,040 113d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 100¢ $639 114d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 99¢ $795 114d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 87¢ $427 115d
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks BUY Grizzlies 100¢ $1,368 117d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $871 119d
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 58¢ $3 123d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 100¢ $530 124d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 100¢ $1,360 133d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 10¢ $18 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 52¢ $100 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE $11 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $3 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $65 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $12 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 55¢ $120 138d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 54¢ $135 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.94 · official $128.94 (match) · 78 history records