Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5E 0x5e59…f75a crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$22 (-6%) realized −$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-17.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-9.1%	-17.8%	88%	12%	-14.7%
≤30d	8	-9.1%	-17.8%	88%	12%	-14.7%
≤90d	8	-9.1%	-17.8%	88%	12%	-14.7%
all	8	-9.1%	-17.8%	88%	12%	-14.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.8%	12%	-14.7%
10%	-25.6%	0%	-22.9%
15%	-32.8%	0%	-30.4%
20%	-39.4%	0%	-37.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

86% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$36 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 26	$56	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 26	$50	+$6	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 26	$36	−$36	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 26	$49	+$2	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 26	$48	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 26	$48	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 26	$47	+$1	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$56	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$50	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$36	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$51	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$49	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$48	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$48	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$47	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records