Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e56…338d crypto 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$631 (-10%) realized −$630 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%18W / 429L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day116.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$905
7 days−$989
14 days−$1,615
30 days−$2,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-83.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -81.8% -83.5% 3% 2% -87.1%
≤30d 447 -82.2% -83.9% 4% 2% -67.6%
≤90d 447 -82.2% -83.9% 4% 2% -67.6%
all 447 -82.2% -83.9% 4% 2% -67.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -83.9% 2% -67.6%
10% ← realistic here -85.5% 2% -70.7%
15% -86.9% 2% -73.5%
20% -88.2% 2% -76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$630
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses18 / 429
Open positions1
Markets (closed)447 / 214
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day116.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 57¢ 62¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 51¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 419 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$30 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $46 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.03 · official $16.90 (match) · 3500 history records