Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e55…da44 crypto 97 markets active 16h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+4%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%45W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1
weather 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 44% -10.6%
≤30d 97 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 43% -12.1%
≤90d 97 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 43% -12.1%
all 97 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 43% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 43% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 35% -20.5%
15% -32.6% 30% -28.2%
20% -39.2% 24% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses45 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +401%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records