Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e55…8ffd other 110 markets active 1d ago coverage 206d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3,721 (-1%) realized +$3,346 · open −$7,067
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 75L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,773per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$21,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 206d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$11,137
world 14% +$6,404
crypto 6% −$1,648
economics 6% −$120
sports 3% −$2,328
finance 2% −$1,163
politics 1% $0
tech 0% −$934
culture 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +86.9% +69.1% 60% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 25 +29.8% +17.4% 36% 20% -9.1%
≤90d 64 -37.4% -43.4% 17% 8% -10.4%
all 89 -16.9% -24.8% 16% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 8% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 8% -19.1%
15% -38.6% 8% -26.9%
20% -44.6% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$1,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$735 vs −$198 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$21,663
Realized+$3,346
Unrealized−$7,067
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions21
Markets (closed)89 / 110
History coverage206d
Avg bet$5,773
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 84¢ $10,404 $17,448 +$7,044 (+68%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $10,404 $3,361 −$7,044 (-68%)
England leading at halftime? No 61¢ 60¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 54¢ $54 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-3%)
France leading at halftime? No 52¢ 50¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 50¢ 44¢ $50 $45 −$6 (-11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 44¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 32¢ $34 $33 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 30¢ 24¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,400 +$8,600 +614%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $11,434 −$9 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$58 +129%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $60 +$41 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 +$42 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $48 +$52 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $23,154 +$63 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $1,300 −$270 -21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $152,646 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $636 −$102 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 03 $16,050 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $527 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 28 $9,796 −$1,163 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $525 −$150 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $7,260 −$491 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $8,500 −$1,000 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 20 $15,240 −$2,217 -14%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $4,005 −$1,467 -37%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 20 $18,364 −$28 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $9,240 −$480 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 19 $9,457 +$1 +0%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 10 $6,781 −$9 -0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $9,182 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $28,650 −$8 -0%
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? Apr 07 $25 −$16 -65%
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 07 $56 −$26 -47%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $371 −$307 -83%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $8,118 −$281 -4%
Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch? Apr 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Apr 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Apr 02 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Apr 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 02 $230 −$119 -52%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Apr 02 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Apr 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $54 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $47 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $31 26h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $62 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $46 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $61 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $45 26h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $51 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $31 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $42 26h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $53 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $35 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $35 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $51 26h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $31 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $10 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $2,158 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1,651 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $1,077 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $3,291 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $2,188 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $620 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10,994 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $110 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,662.75 · official $21,662.75 (match) · 787 history records