Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e54…fffd politics 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,761 (-1%) realized −$1,758 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days−$163
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$84
other 40% −$148
sports 10% −$1,546
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$5
tech 2% −$4
world 1% −$15
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -11.2% -19.7% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 81 -6.5% -15.4% 4% 0% -10.4%
all 146 -5.9% -14.9% 18% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 7% -10.5%
10% -23.0% 7% -19.0%
15% -30.5% 6% -26.9%
20% -37.3% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$1,758
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $305 $302 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $654 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,980 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,063 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $864 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $2,136 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $819 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $276 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $378 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,347 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $5,597 −$6 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $4,074 −$4 -0%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $3,546 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,998 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,151 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,185 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,698 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $2,278 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $653 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $654 3h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $653 21h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 23h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 24h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 26h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $648 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $649 3d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $634 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $305 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $745 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $746 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $630 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $631 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $804 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $804 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $819 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $731 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $732 13d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 32¢ $61 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.42 · official $302.42 (match) · 471 history records