Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e53…941a other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$45
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$6
crypto 6% −$4
culture 5% −$4
world 5% −$3
economics 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 83 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage128d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $261 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $595 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $596 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $281 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $326 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $225 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $380 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $296 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $386 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $514 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $330 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 6h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 7h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 9h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $44 10h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 11h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 18h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 23h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 24h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 26h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 28h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $44 33h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $44 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 46h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1406 history records