Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e52…5386 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-9%) realized −$9 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$55
world 15% +$10
other 10% +$6
politics 4% +$1
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.7% -0.8% 75% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 11 +6.2% -3.9% 73% 64% -14.1%
≤90d 19 -22.2% -29.6% 53% 42% -19.7%
all 19 -22.2% -29.6% 53% 42% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 42% -19.7%
10% -36.3% 32% -27.4%
15% -42.5% 16% -34.4%
20% -48.1% 16% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage59d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 32¢ $57 $35 −$22 (-38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 21 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $29 +$3 +12%
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Jun 21 $1 $0 -15%
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? Jun 21 $7 +$2 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $60 −$40 -67%
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $30 +$10 +35%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $17 +$4 +23%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $58 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $15 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 2h
Clavicular sentenced to prison? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $9 2h
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 80¢ $39 19d
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Daniel Merida Aguilar 99¢ $36 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 23¢ $3 19d
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 82¢ $30 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ $10 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $40 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 73¢ $15 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 74¢ $15 20d
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava SELL Emilio Nava 100¢ $21 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $9 20d
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 81¢ $17 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 42¢ $10 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 35d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $9 35d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 99¢ $9 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 38d
Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next? BUY No 33¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.14 · official $56.15 (match) · 97 history records