Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e51…465a other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$3
other 30% −$1
politics 10% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 12% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 7% -8.8%
all 46 -1.8% -11.2% 33% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage297d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $47 −$5 -10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $48 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $39 +$6 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $38 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Feb 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $2 $0 -9%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Aug 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $23 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $20 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $43 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 28h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $47 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $48 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $48 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.34 · official $39.34 (match) · 151 history records