Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e51…5a67 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$5
politics 27% $0
sports 18% $0
other 13% $0
crypto 8% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -10.7%
all 27 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage318d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $41 −$6 -16%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $73 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $69 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $9 $0 +3%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 10 $75 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on August 7? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on August 6? Aug 06 $86 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $9 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $23 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $17 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $35 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.89 · official $31.79 (match) · 103 history records