Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e51…ccaa
other · 98 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$118 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$162 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$528
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)56 / 98
History coverage15d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 42 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$175
14 days+$172
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $118 $128 +$10 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $113 $124 +$11 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 89¢ 82¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 10 and 12 million views on day 1? No 90¢ 72¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 63¢ 88¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+40%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 79¢ 92¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 90¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 63¢ 84¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1? Yes 20¢ 44¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes $8 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-91%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $81 +$38 +48%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $953 +$143 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +424%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 11 $502 −$1 -0%
ITF Wichita: Philip Sekulic vs Blake Ellis Jun 10 $1 $0 -22%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 08 $1 $0 -18%
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Jun 08 $1 $0 -30%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +48%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +17%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
43 million or more views Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% +$123
finance 27% −$10
world 19% +$7
other 5% −$23
sports 4% +$37
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 10 and 12 million views o BUY No 90¢ $30 5h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $10 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $18 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $5 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $57 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $2 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +29.1% +16.8% 42% 32% +0.2%
≤30d 56 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 32% -1.0%
≤90d 56 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 32% -1.0%
all 56 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 32% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 32% -1.0%
10% -15.1% 14% -10.4%
15% -23.3% 9% -19.1%
20% -30.8% 4% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.39 · official $528.42 (match) · 261 history records