Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e51…42ce sports 375 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (326 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,737 (+3%) realized +$5,467 · open +$270
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate80%315W / 79L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day325.5pace
Fees−$938est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$5,704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$468
7 days+$605
14 days+$2,024
30 days+$2,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$2,547
other 43% +$2,326
crypto 1% +$127
world 1% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (326 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 20% -9.8%
≤30d 394 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 22% -8.8%
≤90d 394 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 22% -8.8%
all 394 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 22% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover325.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 22% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 15% -17.5%
15% -22.9% 12% -25.5%
20% -30.4% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$150 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5,704
Realized+$5,467
Unrealized+$270
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses315 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$938
Open positions16
Markets (closed)394 / 375
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$442
Trades / day325.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $4,043 $4,010 −$33 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $455 $523 +$69 (+15%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ $81 $319 +$238 (+293%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 64¢ 64¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 80¢ 86¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 80¢ 18¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 22 $10 −$9 -88%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 22 $7 −$4 -63%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 22 $0 +$1 +628%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$18 -90%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 22 $1,458 −$373 -26%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 22 $2 +$913 +41494%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 22 $148 −$137 -93%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 22 $178 −$177 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 22 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 22 $43 −$36 -84%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-17.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 22 $2,810 −$2,378 -85%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $136 $0 +0%
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) Jun 22 $2,472 +$28 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,428 +$46 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $498 +$2 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $102 +$98 +96%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $396 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $274 +$2 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1 +$1 +82%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $793 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $225 +$25 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $288 +$12 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $168 +$132 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $785 +$12 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $296 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $299 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $43 2m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $136 14m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $2 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $0 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $14 26m
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? BUY No 100¢ $238 28m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $2 30m
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? BUY No 100¢ $261 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 36m
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 98¢ $687 40m
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $243 40m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY No 97¢ $97 47m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 48m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 48m
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $199 49m
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 96¢ $192 54m
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $151 59m
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $99 59m
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $187 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,703.98 · official $5,703.98 (match) · 3500 history records