Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e50…a3e5 crypto 774 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,428 (-13%) realized −$4,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate82%690W / 147L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,965
world 4% −$45
economics 2% +$902
finance 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -36.5% -42.5% 53% 10% -37.6%
≤30d 191 -36.5% -42.5% 53% 10% -37.6%
≤90d 191 -36.5% -42.5% 53% 10% -37.6%
all 837 -9.7% -18.3% 82% 5% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 5% -14.3%
10% -26.1% 2% -22.5%
15% -33.2% 2% -30.0%
20% -39.8% 1% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$26 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses690 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)837 / 774
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 837 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $90 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records