Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e4e…4e24 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$117 (-1%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$102
other 38% −$6
weather 9% −$2
politics 5% −$2
culture 5% +$1
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -1.0% -10.4% 39% 13% -10.0%
all 32 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 12% -10.1%
10% -21.5% 12% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 12% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$879) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage103d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Apr 16 $1,763 +$1 +0%
Will Jaccob Slavin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Apr 15 $832 +$1 +0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater Apr 15 $887 +$1 +0%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series Apr 15 $727 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in April 2026? Apr 15 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Petr Yan fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Apr 15 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Apr 15 $819 +$4 +0%
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 15 $1,582 $0 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
América FC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Leicester City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $4 +$3 +96%
Preston North End FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $4 +$3 +92%
Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $5 +$6 +108%
SK Sigma Olomouc vs. FK Mladá Boleslav: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. AA Ponte Preta: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Sheffield United FC vs. Swansea City AFC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $4 +$3 +89%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 01 $1,725 +$2 +0%
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 01 $815 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 01 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $752 +$1 +0%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 01 $879 −$2 -0%
Cyprus vs. Belarus: Both Teams to Score Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Zeev Buium win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Mar 26 $1,637 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March? Mar 26 $813 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 2 Mar 25 $1,654 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C or below on March 28? Mar 25 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $8.00? Mar 25 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $7.50? Mar 25 $752 −$2 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 8AM ET Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 30d
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $845 60d
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $32 60d
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $878 60d
Will Jaccob Slavin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? SELL No 99¢ $833 60d
Will Jaccob Slavin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? BUY No 99¢ $832 60d
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $48 60d
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $839 60d
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $886 60d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater SELL No 99¢ $845 60d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater SELL No 99¢ $43 60d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater BUY No 99¢ $887 60d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL No 96¢ $728 60d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY No 96¢ $727 60d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 99¢ $882 60d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $883 60d
Will Petr Yan fight Alexander Volkanovski next? SELL No 100¢ $781 60d
Will Petr Yan fight Alexander Volkanovski next? BUY No 100¢ $782 60d
Will Newcastle finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag SELL No 100¢ $823 60d
Will Newcastle finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag BUY No 99¢ $819 60d
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 98¢ $779 60d
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 98¢ $33 60d
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 98¢ $812 60d
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 98¢ $4 60d
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 98¢ $766 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records