Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5E 0x5e4c…7d17 sports 292 markets active 12h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized +$15 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate73%187W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$14
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$1
other 28% +$2
crypto 28% +$4
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +1.4% -8.3% 70% 60% -8.1%
≤30d 257 +3.0% -6.8% 73% 61% -7.0%
≤90d 257 +3.0% -6.8% 73% 61% -7.0%
all 257 +3.0% -6.8% 73% 61% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 61% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 44% -15.9%
15% -23.9% 30% -24.0%
20% -31.3% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses187 / 70
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)257 / 292
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 86¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 75¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Esport BERG 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C INFURITY Gaming 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Enjoy 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 80¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Americ Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff Jun 20 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 20 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 20 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +72%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 $0 +33%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +104%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $1 $0 +43%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $1 $0 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 18 $1 $0 -15%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Americ BUY FaZe Clan 69¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 58¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 80¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite BUY INFURITY Gaming 83¢ $1 11h
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Sta BUY Geekay Esports 95¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 64¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff BUY QUAZAR 78¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 89¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 51¢ $1 11h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 74¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 75¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $1 11h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 88¢ $1 11h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 64¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 63¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Final BUY Esport BERG 50¢ $1 39h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $1 39h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $1 39h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 39h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 86¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 71¢ $1 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.50 · official $40.50 (match) · 566 history records