Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5e48…b947 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+4%) realized +$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$75
other 25% $0
tech 12% $0
economics 12% +$7
crypto 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 40% -3.7%
all 9 +3.9% -6.0% 44% 22% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 22% -5.6%
10% -15.0% 22% -14.6%
15% -23.2% 11% -22.9%
20% -30.8% 11% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$130 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage113d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $262 −$259 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 05 $186 +$42 +23%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $244 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 02 $240 $0 +0%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 22 $248 +$292 +117%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $247 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $4 $0 -9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $236 +$7 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $240 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.67 · official $30.67 (match) · 21 history records