Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e47…e444 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
other 26% +$10
economics 10% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 29% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 29% 0% -8.9%
all 26 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 4% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -7.6%
10% -18.1% 4% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 4% -24.5%
20% -33.3% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.96 per $1 lost it wins $4.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage464d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $100 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $50 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $62 +$3 +5%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 12 $62 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $3 $0 +10%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $11 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $20 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $31 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $13 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $18 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $28 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $34 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $34 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records