Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5E 0x5e45…0df2 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$175 (+16%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$121
sports 22% −$28
crypto 4% +$35
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 67% +7.9%
≤30d 4 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 50% -34.6%
≤90d 16 +13.3% +2.5% 62% 50% +0.0%
all 16 +13.3% +2.5% 62% 50% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 50% +0.0%
10% -7.3% 44% -9.6%
15% -16.3% 44% -18.3%
20% -24.5% 38% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$45 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage89d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $48 −$47 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $57 +$42 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $148 +$2 +1%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $187 +$34 +18%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 07 $50 +$48 +97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $76 +$130 +172%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $47 +$23 +48%
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-28? Apr 08 $27 +$43 +163%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Mar 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 27 $20 −$10 -50%
Yokkaichi: James McCabe vs Andre Ilagan Mar 27 $42 +$24 +59%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $100 −$48 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $23 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $34 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 10h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 21d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 31d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 99¢ $1 31d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 99¢ $18 31d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 31d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 98¢ $49 31d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 98¢ $0 31d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 31d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? SELL Yes 94¢ $185 31d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 32d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 44d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 93¢ $87 44d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 44d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 76¢ $152 50d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 54d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $76 69d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 70d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 70d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 70d
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 99¢ $10 73d
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 99¢ $10 73d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 84d
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $25 85d
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $22 85d
Yokkaichi: James McCabe vs Andre Ilagan BUY James McCabe 63¢ $8 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records