Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e45…d758 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-11%) realized −$147 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$146
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.8% -2.5% 67% 56% -26.3%
≤30d 9 +7.8% -2.5% 67% 56% -26.3%
≤90d 9 +7.8% -2.5% 67% 56% -26.3%
all 9 +7.8% -2.5% 67% 56% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 56% -26.3%
10% -11.8% 56% -33.3%
15% -20.3% 56% -39.8%
20% -28.2% 44% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$119 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $141 +$76 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$24 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$40 -79%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 92¢ $30 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $122 5h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $153 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $5 17h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 17h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $15 42h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.22 · official $520.22 (match) · 31 history records