Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e44…0c78 crypto 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-12%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%124W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$32
14 days−$67
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -54.6% -59.0% 31% 24% -52.8%
≤30d 287 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 39% -22.4%
≤90d 287 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 39% -22.4%
all 287 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 39% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 39% -22.4%
10% -32.9% 34% -29.8%
15% -39.4% 32% -36.6%
20% -45.4% 28% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses124 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 527 history records