Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e44…950f crypto 1172 markets active 2d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-5%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%528W / 569L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days+$166
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$73
other 3% −$23
weather 3% +$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 47% -14.2%
≤30d 1066 -2.1% -11.4% 49% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 1097 -2.1% -11.4% 48% 47% -8.1%
all 1097 -2.1% -11.4% 48% 47% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 47% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -16.9%
15% -27.7% 46% -24.9%
20% -34.8% 45% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses528 / 569
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1097 / 1172
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1097 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 2193 history records