Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e43…2578 other 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,396 (-11%) realized −$1,397 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%220W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$199
14 days−$326
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,148
sports 22% −$246
world 12% −$20
tech 5% +$24
politics 4% −$127
crypto 2% −$8
culture 1% +$14
economics 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 53% -17.9%
≤30d 85 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 60% -20.4%
≤90d 219 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 60% -15.4%
all 370 +1.2% -8.4% 59% 46% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 46% -20.8%
10% -17.2% 34% -28.4%
15% -25.2% 24% -35.3%
20% -32.5% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$1,397
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses220 / 150
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions8
Markets (closed)370 / 378
History coverage405d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 82¢ 89¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+36%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 65¢ 75¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 88¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$18 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $81 −$47 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$18 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $33 +$13 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$46 +31%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $21 +$18 +84%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $21 +$65 +312%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$6 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$61 -90%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $91 +$49 +54%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -83%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $45 +$44 +100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$31 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $52 +$45 +86%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$60 -71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $47 +$53 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$55 +270%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $26 +$18 +68%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $26 +$4 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18 +$8 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $74 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $56 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 94¢ $12 4h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $13 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 69¢ $17 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $47 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 92¢ $87 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $40 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $21 8h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 97¢ $15 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 99¢ $74 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.19 · official $111.19 (match) · 1505 history records