Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5E 0x5e40…f89c weather 856 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,755 (+9%) realized +$1,751 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%394W / 458L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$94
14 days+$324
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,164
other 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 34% -3.2%
≤30d 252 +22.3% +10.6% 44% 37% +2.7%
≤90d 703 +20.9% +9.4% 44% 37% +3.4%
all 852 +19.5% +8.1% 46% 39% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 39% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.3% 30% -13.4%
15% -11.7% 23% -21.8%
20% -20.4% 18% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1,751
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses394 / 458
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)852 / 856
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+282%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $514 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $90 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $27 +$18 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $23 −$16 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $17 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $7 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $114 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$17 +349%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$14 +453%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 +$39 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? SELL Yes 80¢ $7 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? SELL Yes 82¢ $13 55m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $529 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $506 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 20¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 14¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $23 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 25¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 33¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.79 · official $8.00 · 3500 history records